Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C8 0xc8fd…3e24 sports 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,819 (-11%) realized −$1,817 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%63W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$237est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70
7 days−$454
14 days−$1,447
30 days−$2,320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$2,027
crypto 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -13.2% -21.4% 44% 44% -30.7%
≤30d 132 -13.8% -22.0% 42% 42% -24.0%
≤90d 143 -10.8% -19.3% 44% 44% -21.3%
all 143 -10.8% -19.3% 44% 44% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 44% -21.3%
10% -27.0% 44% -28.8%
15% -34.1% 43% -35.7%
20% -40.5% 43% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$93 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized−$1,817
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses63 / 80
Est. fees paid−$237
Open positions2
Markets (closed)143 / 145
History coverage32d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5 Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $109 +$91 +83%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $108 +$92 +85%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 17 $99 +$101 +101%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 Jun 16 $107 +$92 +86%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-15.5) Jun 16 $111 −$111 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Jun 16 $111 +$89 +79%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 157.5 Jun 15 $211 −$211 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 163.5 Jun 12 $108 +$93 +86%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 Jun 11 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-5.5) Jun 11 $117 −$117 -100%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) Jun 11 $84 +$64 +76%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-8.5) Jun 11 $19 +$14 +70%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 169.5 Jun 10 $109 −$99 -91%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 169.5 Jun 10 $105 −$13 -12%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5) Jun 10 $117 −$117 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $109 −$109 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 170.5 Jun 10 $108 +$83 +76%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $317 −$317 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 Jun 09 $79 −$79 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 Jun 09 $105 −$105 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5) Jun 09 $109 +$90 +82%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $111 −$111 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $117 −$117 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $113 −$68 -60%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $115 −$115 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $115 +$85 +73%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $107 −$87 -81%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $111 −$111 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $111 +$88 +79%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $111 +$89 +79%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 164.5 Jun 06 $105 −$105 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5 Jun 06 $103 −$103 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5 Jun 06 $103 −$103 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 06 $126 +$133 +105%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $97 −$47 -48%
Spread: Chicago Sky (-8.5) Jun 06 $118 +$82 +69%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $116 −$116 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 Jun 06 $109 −$109 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 05 $119 +$81 +67%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire: O/U 165.5 Jun 05 $1 $0 -3%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $120 −$120 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 162.5 Jun 05 $113 +$87 +76%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 05 $116 +$84 +72%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 05 $107 +$93 +87%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 04 $115 −$65 -56%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 04 $115 −$11 -10%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $113 −$113 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 55¢ $111 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $103 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $109 4h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $108 4h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) BUY Indiana Fever 49¢ $99 16h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5 BUY Under 54¢ $109 18h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 SELL Under 100¢ $200 25h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 BUY Under 53¢ $107 28h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 BUY Under 55¢ $111 41h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-15.5) BUY PortlandFire 55¢ $111 41h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 157.5 BUY Over 54¢ $211 5d
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 163.5 BUY Over 53¢ $9 5d
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 163.5 BUY Over 53¢ $99 5d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-9.5) BUY PortlandFire 49¢ $102 5d
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) BUY Connecticut Sun 59¢ $10 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 169.5 SELL Under 5¢ $10 6d
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) BUY Connecticut Sun 56¢ $74 6d
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-8.5) BUY Connecticut Sun 58¢ $19 6d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 BUY Under 51¢ $103 6d
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-5.5) BUY Los Angeles Sparks 58¢ $117 6d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 169.5 SELL Under 47¢ $93 6d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 169.5 BUY Under 52¢ $105 6d
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 169.5 BUY Under 54¢ $109 6d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 56¢ $108 7d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 58¢ $117 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $103 7d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $109 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 56¢ $200 8d
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5) SELL Connecticut Sun 100¢ $200 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 111.5 BUY Under 53¢ $79 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.00 · official $210.00 (match) · 360 history records