Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:28:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc8f6…b782
world · 64 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$8 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses21 / 41
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage514d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 2 History 62 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 82¢ 81¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $35 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $103 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 31 $6 −$1 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $75 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $38 −$2 -5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 25 $13 +$1 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $98 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $37 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $3 −$2 -50%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 19 $42 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? May 18 $35 +$3 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $26 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $63 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $90 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $2 $0 -13%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $33 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $33 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $3 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $134 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $103 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $1 $0 -14%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $74 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 05 $33 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 03 $67 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 36% −$2
other 24% −$9
sports 15% $0
politics 15% +$2
finance 4% +$1
economics 4% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 22¢ $11 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $12 4h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 11h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $8 4d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $31 4d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $39 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $35 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $20 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 6d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $35 6d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $35 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $36 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $35 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 8d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 10d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 11d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $22 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.0% 29% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 26 -1.9% -11.2% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 60 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 62 -2.8% -12.1% 34% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.60 · official $0.00 (match) · 231 history records