Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:41:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8f0…835c weather 1308 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$181 (-0%) realized −$194 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate71%914W / 378L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$722now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$113
14 days+$20
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$425
weather 28% −$1,079
other 23% +$840
crypto 2% +$316
world 1% +$92
economics 0% +$1
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -13.2% -21.5% 78% 16% -11.7%
≤30d 273 -10.1% -18.7% 74% 12% -9.9%
≤90d 944 -15.5% -23.6% 66% 17% -10.5%
all 1292 -11.1% -19.5% 71% 17% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 17% -9.7%
10% -27.2% 10% -18.4%
15% -34.3% 8% -26.2%
20% -40.7% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$22 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$722
Realized−$194
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses914 / 378
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1292 / 1308
History coverage164d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 1292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? No 86¢ 100¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? No 96¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? No 93¢ 94¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 18? No 92¢ 93¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 18? No 95¢ 94¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? No 91¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? No 99¢ 98¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? No 88¢ 87¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 338 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$13 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $60 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $60 +$3 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $200 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $130 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $131 +$24 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $50 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $50 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 18h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 18h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $50 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $51 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $50 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $50 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $50 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $50 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $50 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 25h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 29h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $51 29h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $50 41h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 79¢ $51 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $722.18 · official $722.14 (match) · 2834 history records