trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 11 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 55% | 18% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +1.7% | -8.0% | 55% | 18% | -9.1% |
| all | 26 | +2.2% | -7.6% | 50% | 15% | -8.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.6% | 15% | -8.2% |
| 10% | -16.4% | 0% | -17.0% |
| 15% | -24.5% | 0% | -25.0% |
| 20% | -31.9% | 0% | -32.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 90¢ | $42 | $42 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 58¢ | 56¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Jun 02 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 02 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 01 | $53 | +$7 | +14% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | May 31 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 31 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 30 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 30 | $149 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 29 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 27 | $7 | +$1 | +15% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 26 | $53 | −$5 | -9% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 25 | $53 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Dec 12 | $41 | +$8 | +19% |
| Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? | Nov 20 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Nov 20 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? | Nov 20 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? | Nov 19 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? | Nov 19 | $39 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | Nov 18 | $5 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? | Oct 24 | $5 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Oct 23 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? | Oct 19 | $5 | $0 | +11% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Sep 29 | $4 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Sep 14 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Sep 13 | $4 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? | Sep 12 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? | Aug 21 | $40 | $0 | -1% |