trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 11¢ | 81¢ | $25,274 | $183,487 | +$158,213 (+626%) |
| Magic vs. Pistons | Magic | 24¢ | 0¢ | $3,700 | $0 | −$3,700 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | Hawks | 43¢ | 0¢ | $14,000 | $0 | −$14,000 (-100%) |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $8,088 | $0 | −$8,088 (-100%) |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $1,051 | $0 | −$1,051 (-100%) |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | Timberwolves | 18¢ | 0¢ | $1,279 | $0 | −$1,279 (-100%) |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | Raptors | 28¢ | 0¢ | $40,000 | $0 | −$40,000 (-100%) |
| Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $2,476 | $0 | −$2,476 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers | 44¢ | 0¢ | $4,126 | $0 | −$4,126 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | 76ers | 47¢ | 0¢ | $98,369 | $0 | −$98,369 (-100%) |
| NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic | Magic | 65¢ | 0¢ | $74,754 | $0 | −$74,754 (-100%) |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | Cavaliers | 40¢ | 0¢ | $4,156 | $0 | −$4,156 (-100%) |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | Timberwolves | 35¢ | 0¢ | $50,151 | $0 | −$50,151 (-100%) |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | Cavaliers | 42¢ | 0¢ | $48,472 | $0 | −$48,472 (-100%) |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | Lakers | 14¢ | 0¢ | $32,832 | $0 | −$32,832 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $79,989 | −$79,989 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $149,710 | +$123,475 | +82% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 06 | $33,463 | +$65,942 | +197% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 02 | $8,409 | −$8,088 | -96% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | May 26 | $25,931 | +$11,104 | +43% |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | May 25 | $4,195 | −$4,126 | -98% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | May 25 | $20,035 | −$3,258 | -16% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | May 25 | $20,348 | −$3,028 | -15% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | May 18 | $15,101 | +$4,204 | +28% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 18 | $1,452 | +$2,396 | +165% |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | May 16 | $97,338 | +$49,996 | +51% |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | May 10 | $99,922 | −$98,369 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | May 08 | $51,129 | −$50,151 | -98% |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | May 08 | $49,907 | +$6,544 | +13% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 07 | $4,231 | −$4,156 | -98% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 07 | $1,310 | −$1,279 | -98% |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | May 07 | $53,570 | +$12,123 | +23% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 05 | $49,315 | −$48,472 | -98% |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | May 05 | $33,685 | −$32,832 | -98% |
| Magic vs. Pistons | May 03 | $30,662 | −$1,972 | -6% |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | May 03 | $40,838 | +$91,539 | +224% |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | May 02 | $40,867 | −$40,000 | -98% |
| Celtics vs. 76ers | May 01 | $11,763 | +$23,180 | +197% |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | Apr 30 | $14,239 | −$14,000 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET | Apr 29 | $42 | −$42 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET | Apr 29 | $32 | −$32 | -100% |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | Apr 29 | $3,061 | −$3,061 | -100% |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | Apr 28 | $1,070 | −$1,051 | -98% |
| Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | Apr 28 | $2,513 | −$2,476 | -98% |
| Magic vs. Pistons | Apr 28 | $3,784 | −$3,700 | -98% |
| NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic | Apr 28 | $75,607 | −$74,754 | -99% |
| Thunder vs. Suns | Apr 28 | $15,000 | −$15,000 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Magic | Apr 28 | $34,983 | +$43,269 | +124% |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | Apr 26 | $3,064 | −$1,332 | -44% |
| Pistons vs. Magic | Apr 25 | $1,705 | +$927 | +54% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | Apr 25 | $5,998 | +$4,181 | +70% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | Apr 20 | $33,304 | −$14,624 | -44% |
| Thunder vs. Warriors | Apr 20 | $1,000 | −$1,000 | -100% |
| Hornets vs. Bucks | Apr 20 | $800 | −$800 | -100% |
| Pacers vs. Hawks | Apr 20 | $888 | −$888 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Thunder | Apr 20 | $1,300 | −$1,300 | -100% |
| Hornets vs. Jazz | Apr 20 | $1,070 | −$1,070 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Suns | Apr 20 | $19,992 | −$19,992 | -100% |
| Clippers vs. Jazz | Apr 20 | $9,506 | −$9,506 | -100% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies | Apr 20 | $5,000 | −$5,000 | -100% |
| Bucks vs. Hawks | Apr 20 | $3,095 | −$3,095 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Nuggets | Apr 20 | $3,498 | −$3,498 | -100% |
| Pacers vs. Rockets | Apr 20 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Magic vs. Cavaliers | Apr 20 | $2,497 | −$2,497 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Wizards | Apr 20 | $1,158 | −$1,158 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +59.8% | +44.6% | 67% | 67% | +28.1% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +21.4% | +9.8% | 55% | 55% | +22.0% |
| ≤90d | 179 | -60.7% | -64.5% | 13% | 13% | -7.8% |
| all | 282 | -9.1% | -17.8% | 28% | 28% | +8.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -17.8% | 28% | +8.4% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -25.6% | 27% | -2.0% |
| 15% | -32.8% | 26% | -11.5% |
| 20% | -39.4% | 26% | -20.1% |