Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:16:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8ea…abdd crypto 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$144 (+9%) realized +$144 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%28W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$17
other 6% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -9.9% -18.5% 41% 38% -8.6%
≤30d 68 -9.9% -18.5% 41% 38% -8.6%
≤90d 68 -9.9% -18.5% 41% 38% -8.6%
all 68 -9.9% -18.5% 41% 38% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 38% -8.6%
10% -26.3% 34% -17.4%
15% -33.4% 29% -25.3%
20% -40.0% 22% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$17 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses28 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage6d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $148 +$42 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $127 −$18 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $46 +$261 +568%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $69 −$49 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$12 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $44 +$40 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$31 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $76 −$76 -100%
Will PPI YoY be between 6.0% and 6.9% in May? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -28%
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$9 -57%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$9 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $23 +$5 +21%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$14 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$3 -30%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$23 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $89 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $77 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $71 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $76 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $85 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $33 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $306 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 178 history records