Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:24:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc8e7…3264 crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate86%49W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$6
crypto 8% +$1
tech 3% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 57 +0.1% -9.4% 86% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses49 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage526d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in April? May 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in March? Apr 01 $47 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $59 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $240 in November? Dec 03 $51 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $57 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? Oct 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Oct 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Sep 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August? Sep 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 02 $25 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in May? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $5 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 06 $6 $0 +1%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 06 $8 $0 +0%
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May? May 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $5,782 −$6 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +1%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets finish with the worst regular season record? Mar 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Mykel Williams be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 06 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $71 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 30d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $48 30d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $5 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $23 63d
Will BNB dip to $400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $41 63d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 91d
Will BNB reach $900 in March? BUY No 100¢ $47 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $4 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 121d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $59 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $10 149d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 150d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $12 181d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $24 181d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $34 182d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $18 211d
Will Solana reach $240 in November? BUY No 100¢ $51 211d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 242d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 272d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe BUY Yes 100¢ $37 274d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 300d
Will Solana reach $290 in August? BUY No 100¢ $20 302d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $43 302d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $7 332d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $26 333d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 99¢ $33 335d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 99¢ $25 366d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.72 · official $70.72 (match) · 119 history records