Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8e5…9b77 crypto 43 markets active 7d ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$175 (-27%) realized −$175 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$6
crypto 20% −$14
politics 19% −$92
sports 15% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-53.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -51.6% -56.2% 40% 40% -74.6%
≤30d 11 -56.0% -60.2% 36% 36% -75.6%
≤90d 11 -56.0% -60.2% 36% 36% -75.6%
all 43 -48.4% -53.3% 40% 30% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.3% 30% -33.2%
10% -57.7% 21% -39.6%
15% -61.8% 12% -45.4%
20% -65.6% 7% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage231d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
T20 World Cup: England vs Pakistan Feb 24 $2 +$1 +36%
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa Feb 22 $2 $0 +33%
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + JA21? Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: Nepal vs Scotland (Game 1) Feb 17 $5 $0 +9%
T20 World Cup: New Zealand vs South Africa (Game 1) Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs Scotland (Game 1) Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p Feb 12 $119 −$92 -77%
T20 World Cup: Oman vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Ireland (Game 1) Feb 08 $5 +$3 +54%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Feb 08 $1 +$1 +71%
T20 World Cup: Italy vs Scotland (Game 1) Feb 08 $3 −$3 -100%
T20 World Cup: Afghanistan vs New Zealand (Game 1) Feb 08 $1 $0 +45%
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 17 $199 +$54 +27%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 29 $20 −$12 -59%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 26 $31 +$7 +21%
Bangladesh T20 Series: Bangladesh vs West Indies (Oct 31) Oct 31 $70 −$70 -100%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $7 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 30 $98 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Oct 27 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Oct 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 10AM ET Oct 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Oct 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Oct 26 $1 +$1 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Oct 26 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8AM ET Oct 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8AM ET Oct 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 26, 8AM ET Oct 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - October 26, 8AM ET Oct 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Oct 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Oct 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $6 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down $1 15d
T20 World Cup: England vs Pakistan SELL England 60¢ $3 115d
T20 World Cup: England vs Pakistan BUY England 44¢ $2 115d
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa SELL South Africa 40¢ $2 117d
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa BUY South Africa 30¢ $2 117d
Will the next Dutch government be PVV + JA21? BUY Yes $1 118d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 BUY Yes $1 120d
T20 World Cup: Nepal vs Scotland (Game 1) SELL Nepal 12¢ $1 122d
T20 World Cup: Nepal vs Scotland (Game 1) SELL Nepal 71¢ $5 122d
T20 World Cup: Nepal vs Scotland (Game 1) BUY Nepal 38¢ $5 122d
T20 World Cup: England vs Scotland (Game 1) BUY Scotland 12¢ $1 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records