Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:47:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc8e4…ce17
crypto · 890 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$266 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$267 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$267
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses699 / 190
Open positions1
Markets (closed)889 / 890
History coverage30d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day82.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 889 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$187
7 days−$161
14 days−$93
30 days−$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 58¢ 66¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$12 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$9 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$7 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $18 −$13 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $36 −$21 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$15 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$261
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 472 -13.4% -21.7% 76% 33% -13.6%
≤30d 877 -4.7% -13.8% 78% 35% -12.3%
≤90d 889 -4.5% -13.6% 79% 35% -12.0%
all 889 -4.5% -13.6% 79% 35% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover82.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 35% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 13% -20.4%
15% -29.4% 7% -28.1%
20% -36.3% 3% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.65 · official $5.85 (match) · 3500 history records