Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:37:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc8e3…05e1 sports 642 markets active 2h ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$579 (+3%) realized +$568 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%282W / 347L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$123est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days+$500
14 days+$830
30 days+$540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$69
other 33% +$814
crypto 0% +$25
world 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +346.2% +303.7% 100% 100% +89.7%
≤30d 56 +32.0% +19.4% 55% 55% +8.3%
≤90d 282 +7.4% -2.9% 45% 45% -6.4%
all 629 +4.0% -5.9% 45% 45% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 45% -4.6%
10% -14.9% 45% -13.7%
15% -23.1% 43% -22.0%
20% -30.6% 40% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$21 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized+$568
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses282 / 347
Est. fees paid−$123
Open positions4
Markets (closed)629 / 642
History coverage263d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 629 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $125 $122 −$3 (-2%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 46¢ 42¢ $70 $63 −$7 (-10%)
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) Belgium 10¢ $28 $50 +$22 (+78%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 23¢ 21¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 346 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $250 +$78 +31%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $31 +$58 +189%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $95 +$100 +105%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Fra Jun 17 $71 +$160 +224%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Aust Jun 17 $9 +$104 +1182%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $79 +$41 +52%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $29 −$29 -98%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $177 +$248 +140%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $17 +$27 +152%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $40 +$38 +97%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $51 +$49 +97%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $21 −$21 -98%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $80 +$32 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $62 −$61 -98%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $59 +$13 +23%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Maja Chwalinska vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $3 −$3 -97%
Hungary leading at halftime? Jun 05 $21 +$24 +116%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $94 +$26 +28%
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $52 +$31 +60%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $46 +$25 +54%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $21 +$25 +116%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $71 +$112 +158%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $127 −$126 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $73 +$25 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $43 −$43 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $21 +$15 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $104 −$21 -20%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $11 +$27 +236%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $29 +$27 +90%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 29 $36 −$35 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $21 +$34 +159%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $98 +$164 +168%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $102 +$116 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $212 −$208 -98%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $31 −$31 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 25 $9 +$25 +267%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $13 −$13 -98%
Los Angeles FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $50 −$49 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $78 −$77 -99%
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5) May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Will SC União Torreense win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $140 +$23 +17%
Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5 May 24 $15 +$14 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) BUY Belgium $29 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 23¢ $20 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 46¢ $71 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $126 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 99¢ $328 3h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $250 3h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY 48¢ $130 25h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $88 25h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $31 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 10¢ $10 27h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi BUY 13¢ $18 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY 38¢ $67 3d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: BUY $9 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 12¢ $20 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 48¢ $95 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Aust BUY $9 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Fra BUY 30¢ $71 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR I BUY 13¢ $19 6d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will BUY 59¢ $85 6d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Pa BUY $5 6d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $29 11d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 65¢ $79 11d
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 41¢ $177 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 12d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $17 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.56 · official $253.56 (match) · 1021 history records