Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:09:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8e3…7b4e politics 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$3
politics 18% −$3
economics 15% −$2
world 15% −$2
tech 15% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 17 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 26 -1.6% -11.0% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage101d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 29 $64 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 29 $1,311 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1,333 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 29 $1,264 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 28 $53 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 28 $1,269 −$2 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 28 $1,264 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 28 $1,233 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $181 $0 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Apr 17 $7 $0 -5%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 17 $11 $0 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $4 $0 -7%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $4 $0 -3%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $11 −$1 -8%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Apr 16 $3 $0 -8%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $23 $0 -2%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $160 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $29 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $120 $0 -0%
Will Gonzaga win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 22m
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,309 31m
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 39m
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,254 46m
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 54m
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $955 1h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $308 1h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,264 1h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $53 18h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,267 19h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $25 19h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,219 19h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $14 19h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $14 19h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $27 20h
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $965 20h
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $267 20h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $23 20h
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,233 20h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $181 72d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $181 72d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $7 72d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $7 72d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes $11 72d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes $11 72d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $4 72d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $4 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records