Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:20:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C8 0xc8e0…7c2f world 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$38 (+0%) realized +$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%37W / 65L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$4
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$3
world 39% +$32
politics 18% +$1
economics 1% $0
sports 1% +$4
crypto 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.7% -8.0% 40% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 25 +0.3% -9.3% 24% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 50 -1.1% -10.5% 28% 0% -9.3%
all 102 +0.3% -9.3% 36% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 3% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 3% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 3% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses37 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage492d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 65¢ 64¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $362 $0 -0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $180 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $460 +$6 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $169 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $196 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $153 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $172 +$2 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $198 −$3 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $403 +$20 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $208 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $504 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $395 −$5 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $374 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $258 −$3 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $196 +$20 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $137 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 28 $170 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $93 −$4 -5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $185 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $8 −$2 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $181 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $9 −$2 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $429 −$1 -0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 11 $108 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 06 $51 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $116 −$5 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 02 $308 +$7 +2%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 27 $105 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $99 −$4 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $89 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $94 +$2 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $173 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,174 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $159 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,067 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $1,039 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $54 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 18 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $376 +$5 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $1,063 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $455 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 36¢ $7 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 36¢ $86 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $83 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $3 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $76 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $15 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $65 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $48 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $34 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $105 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $42 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $35 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $42 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $104 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $180 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $18 5d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $163 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $93 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $10 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $103 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $193 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $195 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $16 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.00 (match) · 394 history records