Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:15:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8df…ca85 crypto 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$30 (-2%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%50W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$16
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +0.8% -8.8% 31% 31% +2.0%
≤30d 109 -4.6% -13.7% 41% 40% -16.9%
≤90d 114 -1.9% -11.2% 44% 43% -15.1%
all 114 -1.9% -11.2% 44% 43% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 43% -15.1%
10% -19.7% 40% -23.2%
15% -27.5% 37% -30.6%
20% -34.6% 29% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses50 / 64
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 114
History coverage33d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$5 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$22 +347%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$9 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$15 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$5 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$6 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$11 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$19 +364%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$7 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$10 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 04 $21 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 03 $24 −$11 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 03 $27 −$15 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 03 $22 +$23 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 03 $20 +$15 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 03 $20 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 03 $22 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 03 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 03 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 03 $34 −$16 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 02 $17 +$12 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 02 $33 −$11 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 02 $33 −$21 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$10 +194%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $6 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $13 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 222 history records