Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:05:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc8da…172a
other · 181 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,234 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,466 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$240
Realized−$1,466
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses5 / 56
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions80
Markets (closed)61 / 181
History coverage7d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day188.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%
Chart Positions 80 History 61 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,443
7 days−$1,466
14 days−$1,466
30 days−$1,466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 58¢ 60¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? No 54¢ 64¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? No 77¢ 98¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+28%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 82¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+18%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? No 43¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $9 −$5 -50%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $9 −$4 -50%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $65 −$61 -94%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$5 -25%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $595 −$587 -99%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $240 −$236 -98%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $413 −$409 -99%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$12 -63%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $78 −$75 -97%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $1 $0 -20%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 11 $4 $0 -2%
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 11 $4 $0 -2%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 11 $2 $0 -5%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $0 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on Jun 11 $0 $0 -0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 11 $11 −$7 -63%
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 11 $63 −$18 -29%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 11 $17 −$13 -74%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on Jun 10 $4 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on I Jun 10 $3 $0 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 10 $3 $0 -7%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 10 $1 $0 -19%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$3 -47%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $19 −$17 -94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 10 $3 $0 -3%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 10 $4 +$2 +47%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $4 $0 -3%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $4 $0 -2%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 09 $1 $0 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -39%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $9 $0 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $8 −$4 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 75% −$1,329
world 10% +$1
politics 8% −$80
tech 3% −$23
sports 2% −$43
economics 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 4m
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 4m
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 6m
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 6m
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 13m
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 13m
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 98¢ $2 14m
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 70¢ $1 14m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $2 14m
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 92¢ $2 14m
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 95¢ $2 14m
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 96¢ $2 14m
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 100¢ $5 14m
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 54¢ $1 14m
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 14m
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 14m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 17m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 17m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 17m
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 17m
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 74¢ $4 18m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $5 18m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 27¢ $1 18m
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $10 19m
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 31¢ $3 19m
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $11 19m
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $11 19m
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 20m
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $0 20m
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $2 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -9.2% -17.9% 8% 7% -85.4%
≤30d 61 -9.5% -18.1% 8% 7% -85.4%
≤90d 61 -9.5% -18.1% 8% 7% -85.4%
all 61 -9.5% -18.1% 8% 7% -85.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover188.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 7% -85.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 5% -86.8%
15% -33.1% 3% -88.0%
20% -39.7% 2% -89.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.78 · official $237.14 · 1556 history records