Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C8 0xc8d2…7b1c crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$173 (+9%) realized +$173 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate83%15W / 3L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$158
other 5% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +3.0% -6.8% 83% 61% -2.0%
≤30d 18 +3.0% -6.8% 83% 61% -2.0%
≤90d 18 +3.0% -6.8% 83% 61% -2.0%
all 18 +3.0% -6.8% 83% 61% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 61% -2.0%
10% -15.7% 39% -11.4%
15% -23.8% 17% -20.0%
20% -31.3% 6% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$57 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$173
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses15 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $203 +$61 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $202 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $201 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$59 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$9 +17%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records