Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:32:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8d2…2381 crypto 785 markets active 0h ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,634 (-11%) realized −$6,824 · open +$190
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%268W / 506L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$547est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$459now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$211
7 days+$185
14 days+$128
30 days−$299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$1,088
crypto 38% −$7,156
other 16% −$915
world 0% −$240
politics 0% −$134
weather 0% −$10
finance 0% −$35
culture 0% +$8
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +153.3% +129.2% 25% 25% +296.9%
≤30d 104 +6.5% -3.6% 33% 32% -15.2%
≤90d 690 -22.3% -29.7% 32% 30% -23.2%
all 774 -16.3% -24.3% 35% 32% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 32% -20.1%
10% -31.5% 30% -27.8%
15% -38.1% 26% -34.7%
20% -44.2% 20% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$49 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$459
Realized−$6,824
Unrealized+$190
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses268 / 506
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$547
Open positions11
Markets (closed)774 / 785
History coverage587d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 774 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? No 8¢ 27¢ $44 $141 +$98 (+224%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? No 4¢ 28¢ $15 $106 +$91 (+608%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? No 5¢ 7¢ $68 $105 +$38 (+55%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? No 9¢ 8¢ $37 $34 −$3 (-7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? No 3¢ 3¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? No 1¢ 2¢ $6 $22 +$16 (+257%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? No 0¢ 0¢ $54 $12 −$42 (-78%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? No 2¢ 2¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 25? No 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $21 +$211 +990%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 20? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +128%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$4 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$13 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $40 −$37 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +43%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $51 −$48 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $46 −$19 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $80 −$11 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $19 −$18 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $74 −$29 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $27 +$54 +197%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $24 −$22 -94%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $22 +$7 +34%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Pavel Kotov Jun 09 $38 +$37 +95%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $64 −$26 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $40 −$32 -79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $16 −$15 -94%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $105 +$19 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $11 −$10 -94%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 +$1 +73%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +50%
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 07 $2 +$1 +57%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $3 $0 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $12 −$11 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $95 −$29 -31%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $11 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $25 −$14 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $37 −$18 -49%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 06 $7 +$1 +8%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $30 +$11 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $16 −$2 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $11 −$10 -94%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $3 +$3 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? BUY No 9¢ $37 12m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? BUY No 3¢ $29 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No 0¢ $16 30m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 8¢ $53 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 8¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? SELL No 13¢ $46 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL No 94¢ $145 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? SELL No 23¢ $114 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL No 56¢ $84 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No 0¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? BUY No 0¢ $0 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY No 1¢ $4 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? BUY No 0¢ $0 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? BUY No 0¢ $0 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? BUY No 0¢ $0 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? SELL No 7¢ $3 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? BUY No 0¢ $0 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? BUY No 0¢ $0 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? BUY No 0¢ $0 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? BUY No 0¢ $0 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? BUY No 0¢ $0 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY No 7¢ $11 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? BUY No 0¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 25? BUY No 0¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No 0¢ $7 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY No 5¢ $11 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? BUY No 4¢ $16 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY No 0¢ $5 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY No 1¢ $7 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $459.00 · official $459.04 (match) · 2494 history records