Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:55:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8d1…55eb crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$44 (+7%) realized +$42 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$40
other 22% −$86
sports 18% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -13.6% -21.8% 42% 42% -9.5%
≤30d 31 -13.6% -21.8% 42% 42% -9.5%
≤90d 31 -13.6% -21.8% 42% 42% -9.5%
all 31 -13.6% -21.8% 42% 42% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 42% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 42% -18.1%
15% -36.1% 42% -26.1%
20% -42.4% 39% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$15 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage2d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Up 49¢ 50¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$37 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-5.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$19 +93%
Pedro Porro: 1+ shots Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$73 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $32 +$15 +48%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $33 +$54 +165%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $16 +$19 +116%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $8 +$13 +155%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $4 +$6 +135%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $2 +$1 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 10h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $16 10h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 23¢ $8 10h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY Belgium 10¢ $4 10h
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) BUY Belgium 6¢ $2 10h
Spread: Belgium (-5.5) BUY Belgium 3¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 11h
Pedro Porro: 1+ shots BUY No 1¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $52 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $32 32h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $8 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.63 · official $81.63 (match) · 57 history records