Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:21:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C8 0xc8cf…b515 sports 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$25 (+7%) realized +$24 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%28W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$2
crypto 33% +$2
other 25% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +35.1% +22.2% 35% 33% -5.3%
≤30d 81 +35.1% +22.2% 35% 33% -5.3%
≤90d 81 +35.1% +22.2% 35% 33% -5.3%
all 81 +35.1% +22.2% 35% 33% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +22.2% 33% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here +10.5% 33% -14.4%
15% -0.2% 32% -22.7%
20% -10.0% 32% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses28 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)81 / 91
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 100¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+335%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Over 9¢ 21¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+133%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+55%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 22¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$34 +1668%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Pedri: 1+ assists Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Rodri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +238%
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ assists Jun 15 $2 +$10 +474%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 +$15 +712%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$5 +262%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 +$33 +1606%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $2 +$4 +188%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$5 +238%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ goals Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$12 +238%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 9¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 28¢ $2 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5h
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 5h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $2 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 36¢ $5 8h
Pedri: 1+ assists BUY Yes 33¢ $2 8h
Rodri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $2 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 9¢ $2 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 8h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 23h
Will Kyle Daukaus win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 23h
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.45 · official $21.45 (match) · 129 history records