Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:38:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8cf…80fe sports 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$558 (+8%) realized +$613 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%43W / 32L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day58.8pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$348
crypto 43% −$109
other 3% −$24
weather 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -4.0% -13.2% 57% 52% -5.9%
≤30d 75 -4.0% -13.2% 57% 52% -5.9%
≤90d 75 -4.0% -13.2% 57% 52% -5.9%
all 75 -4.0% -13.2% 57% 52% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 52% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 45% -14.9%
15% -29.1% 32% -23.2%
20% -36.0% 20% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$41 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized+$613
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses43 / 32
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions4
Markets (closed)75 / 79
History coverage4d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day58.8
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? No 74¢ 71¢ $150 $144 −$6 (-4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Yes 78¢ 32¢ $79 $33 −$46 (-58%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-8%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $203 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $409 +$41 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $302 +$34 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $151 +$19 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $305 +$91 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $121 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $439 −$84 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $71 −$41 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$19 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $61 +$29 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$20 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $207 +$70 +34%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$38 +250%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $111 +$44 +40%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$33 +320%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$4 -18%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $201 +$52 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $56 −$25 -45%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $166 +$39 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $15 +$34 +224%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 +$28 +93%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$2 -72%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $61 +$24 +40%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $81 +$39 +48%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $151 +$61 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $301 +$24 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $182 +$67 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $113 +$57 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$31 +31%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $212 +$93 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $126 −$57 -46%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $61 +$50 +82%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $151 −$150 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $30 +$31 +101%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $145 −$144 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$20 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $247 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $203 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $306 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $38 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 74¢ $152 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $16 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $16 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $16 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $16 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $16 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $15 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $15 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $15 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.60 · official $196.63 · 279 history records