Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc8ce…04e2 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate77%20W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$2
crypto 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +2.4% -7.4% 78% 61% -4.2%
≤30d 26 +0.7% -8.9% 77% 62% -5.6%
≤90d 26 +0.7% -8.9% 77% 62% -5.6%
all 26 +0.7% -8.9% 77% 62% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 62% -5.6%
10% -17.6% 35% -14.6%
15% -25.6% 19% -22.9%
20% -32.9% 15% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses20 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage18d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +17%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -39%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 49m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 50m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 59m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 15h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 15h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 15h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 16h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 16h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 16h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 16h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 16h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 16h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 17h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 17h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 17h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 17h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 17h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records