Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:30:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
C8 0xc8cd…f422 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+11%) realized +$49 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$66
other 41% −$24
sports 9% −$1
economics 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.6% -3.5% 67% 50% +5.1%
≤30d 6 +6.6% -3.5% 67% 50% +5.1%
≤90d 6 +6.6% -3.5% 67% 50% +5.1%
all 6 +6.6% -3.5% 67% 50% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 50% +5.1%
10% -12.8% 33% -5.0%
15% -21.2% 17% -14.1%
20% -28.9% 17% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$13 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)6 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 29¢ 30¢ $129 $132 +$3 (+2%)
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? Yes 64¢ 26¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-60%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 15¢ 4¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $149 −$21 -14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $60 +$63 +104%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $30 +$4 +12%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $129 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $128 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $149 12h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $117 29h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $5 2d
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $50 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $5 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $5 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $5 2d
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 28¢ $32 2d
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 26¢ $1 2d
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 24¢ $30 2d
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon SELL Conor Gannon 4¢ $1 2d
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon BUY Conor Gannon 3¢ $1 2d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 16¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.67 · official $137.67 (match) · 18 history records