Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8cd…ba81 sports 533 markets active 0h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$322 (-4%) realized −$291 · open −$31
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%238W / 292L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$181est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$17
14 days+$6
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$355
other 5% −$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +2.3% -7.4% 51% 49% -7.2%
≤30d 194 -4.4% -13.5% 47% 46% -12.2%
≤90d 529 -7.1% -15.9% 45% 44% -15.6%
all 530 -6.9% -15.7% 45% 44% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 44% -15.2%
10% -23.8% 43% -23.3%
15% -31.2% 42% -30.7%
20% -37.9% 41% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$291
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses238 / 292
Est. fees paid−$181
Open positions3
Markets (closed)530 / 533
History coverage228d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 530 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic Ajla Tomljanovic 32¢ 26¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-20%)
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse Anna Kalinskaya 26¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-86%)
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse 27¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alexis Galarneau vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 24 $15 +$16 +103%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 24 $15 +$18 +114%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 23 $1 $0 +3%
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $15 +$17 +112%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet Jun 23 $15 +$22 +141%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 23 $15 +$16 +106%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan Jun 22 $15 +$20 +133%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $15 +$12 +78%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $15 +$15 +99%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Kimberly Birre Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $15 +$17 +109%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $15 +$17 +113%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $15 +$13 +85%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $15 +$14 +92%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 21 $15 +$11 +69%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $15 +$17 +114%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $15 +$12 +77%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alexander Shevchenko vs Abedall Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $15 +$19 +126%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $15 +$8 +54%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $15 +$18 +118%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $15 +$14 +93%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $15 +$23 +152%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $15 +$12 +80%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $15 +$20 +131%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $13 +$13 +96%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 32¢ $15 9m
Bad Homburg Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Anna Kalinskaya 26¢ $15 33m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alexis Galarneau vs Oliver Tarvet SELL Alexis Galarneau 34¢ $31 1h
Mallorca Championships: Vit Kopriva vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 27¢ $15 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alexis Galarneau vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Alexis Galarneau 16¢ $15 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante SELL Thiago Agustin Tirante 27¢ $33 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 12¢ $15 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 41¢ $15 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Mattia Bellucci 28¢ $1 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 26¢ $1 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart SELL Zeynep Sonmez 99¢ $32 20h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet SELL Polina Kudermetova 100¢ $21 20h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet SELL Polina Kudermetova 73¢ $16 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Jessika Ponchet BUY Polina Kudermetova 35¢ $15 22h
Mallorca Championships: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas 27¢ $15 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 46¢ $15 22h
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 45¢ $32 23h
Mallorca Championships: Lorenzo Sonego vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 21¢ $15 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey BUY Matteo Arnaldi 47¢ $15 24h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nuno Borges BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 17¢ $15 24h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 39¢ $15 25h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 30¢ $15 25h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 28¢ $15 26h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Daria Kasatkina 34¢ $15 43h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan SELL Fabian Marozsan 73¢ $16 46h
Mallorca Championships: Fabian Marozsan vs Alex Molcan SELL Fabian Marozsan 80¢ $20 46h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce SELL Martin Landaluce 59¢ $27 46h
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce BUY Martin Landaluce 32¢ $15 47h
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Solana Sierra 23¢ $31 47h
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Solana Sierra 11¢ $15 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.06 · official $14.83 (match) · 1108 history records