Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8cd…ed53 sports 291 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-3%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%137W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$25
14 days−$3
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$37
crypto 31% +$21
other 18% +$29
world 4% −$28
weather 3% −$35
politics 3% +$11
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +47.1% +33.1% 78% 76% +8.6%
≤30d 230 -9.6% -18.2% 52% 46% -19.1%
≤90d 231 -9.5% -18.1% 52% 46% -17.6%
all 253 -8.5% -17.2% 54% 46% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 46% -13.1%
10% -25.1% 35% -21.4%
15% -32.4% 27% -29.0%
20% -39.0% 15% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses137 / 116
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions38
Markets (closed)253 / 291
History coverage138d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 53¢ 97¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+84%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 76¢ 99¢ $4 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? No 81¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? No 85¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Senegal 81¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Madison Keys 74¢ 73¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Under 70¢ 68¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 66¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Sweden 67¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jordan 75¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 84¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? No 85¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Baltimore Orioles 81¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 81¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? No 80¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Under 80¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? No 78¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 67¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score No 61¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Xinyu Gao Xiyu Wang 83¢ 82¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 85¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jordan 64¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: England (-2.5) Ghana 74¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$1 +57%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 $0 +11%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 $0 +24%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 +$2 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +152%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$12 +1087%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$8 +712%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$2 +44%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +34%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +152%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $6 +$2 +26%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$2 +42%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +62%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +17%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 +$1 +42%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 10 $2 +$1 +44%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $2 +$1 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $2 52m
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 75¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Madison Keys 74¢ $2 1h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 81¢ $2 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 81¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Madison Keys 74¢ $2 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 81¢ $2 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $2 1h
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) BUY Athletics 65¢ $2 2h
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) BUY Athletics 65¢ $2 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 66¢ $2 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 69¢ $2 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 69¢ $2 2h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $2 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $2 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 87¢ $2 3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $2 3h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 86¢ $2 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 4h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 62¢ $2 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $2 5h
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $2 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 80¢ $2 8h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY No 85¢ $2 8h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 90¢ $2 8h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY No 85¢ $2 8h
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 87¢ $2 8h
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 87¢ $2 8h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $2 8h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.20 · official $82.20 (match) · 763 history records