Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8cc…2e39 sports 940 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$773 (+4%) realized +$790 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate59%550W / 375L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day20.3pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$305
14 days+$294
30 days+$311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$395
other 23% +$288
crypto 1% −$22
world 0% +$24
finance 0% −$2
politics 0% +$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +27.2% +15.1% 62% 55% +10.2%
≤30d 150 +7.1% -3.1% 61% 53% -0.3%
≤90d 435 -0.3% -9.8% 60% 50% -6.1%
all 925 -0.7% -10.2% 59% 51% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 51% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 38% -15.3%
15% -26.6% 26% -23.5%
20% -33.8% 19% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized+$790
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses550 / 375
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions11
Markets (closed)925 / 940
History coverage130d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day20.3
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 925 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 66¢ $39 $52 +$13 (+34%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 39¢ $44 $39 −$5 (-12%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 30¢ $59 $30 −$28 (-48%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $29 $24 −$5 (-16%)
Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals Yes 18¢ 34¢ $7 $13 +$6 (+86%)
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ assists Yes 25¢ 49¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+96%)
Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals Yes 9¢ 17¢ $5 $8 +$4 (+81%)
Ryan Gravenberch: 1+ assists Yes 20¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-12%)
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists Yes 12¢ 11¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals Yes 18¢ 7¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-61%)
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists Yes 13¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings Jun 25 $16 +$6 +37%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $10 +$17 +171%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $18 +$20 +112%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$6 +60%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 24 $10 +$70 +679%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$10 +66%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $34 +$6 +19%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $14 +$6 +46%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $45 +$166 +370%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 23 $3 +$5 +194%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6 $0 -0%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $17 $0 +3%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 22 $18 +$6 +35%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 22 $5 +$5 +104%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $70 +$30 +43%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $53 +$27 +50%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 22 $37 +$12 +33%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York Jun 22 $23 +$14 +59%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $59 −$19 -33%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $92 +$26 +28%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Dani Olmo: 1+ assists Jun 21 $5 +$10 +203%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $23 +$17 +76%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists Jun 21 $4 +$12 +299%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $15 +$14 +95%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China Jun 21 $52 +$8 +15%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 21 $44 +$26 +60%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York Jun 21 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will England win? Jun 20 $63 −$49 -78%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $38 +$4 +9%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 20 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Jun 20 $17 +$8 +49%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico Jun 19 $11 +$24 +229%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $60 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $40 1h
Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2h
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2h
Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Crysencio Summerville: 2+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Brian Brobbey: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $7 3h
Ryan Gravenberch: 1+ assists BUY Yes 20¢ $4 3h
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3h
Alexander Isak: 1+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings SELL San Francisco Unicorns 74¢ $22 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND SELL 89¢ $28 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 95¢ $38 21h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY San Francisco Unicorns 54¢ $6 21h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY San Francisco Unicorns 54¢ $6 21h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY San Francisco Unicorns 54¢ $3 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL 99¢ $16 23h
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $80 25h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $9 26h
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists BUY Yes 20¢ $2 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.85 · official $188.85 (match) · 3048 history records