Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8cb…81c6 crypto 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 639d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$214 (-3%) realized −$217 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate78%117W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$198
politics 32% −$6
other 8% −$6
culture 3% −$11
tech 1% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% −$6
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -11.1% -19.5% 11% 0% -15.7%
≤30d 10 -9.0% -17.7% 20% 0% -15.0%
≤90d 15 -5.3% -14.3% 33% 7% -13.7%
all 150 -3.6% -12.8% 78% 7% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 7% -13.0%
10% -21.1% 2% -21.3%
15% -28.7% 1% -28.9%
20% -35.7% 1% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

639d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$217
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses117 / 33
Open positions6
Markets (closed)150 / 156
History coverage639d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by less than 3%? No 89¢ 100¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+12%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 99¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+9%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? No 90¢ 88¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? No 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? No 90¢ 89¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $51 −$3 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $77 −$4 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? Jun 27 $9 −$6 -68%
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Jun 27 $3 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $32 −$2 -6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $17 −$1 -5%
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $17 −$1 -4%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 27 $29 −$2 -6%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +10%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? May 18 $20 +$3 +16%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? May 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? May 17 $145 −$14 -10%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 17 $45 +$3 +6%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 17 $48 +$1 +2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Feb 28 $59 $0 -0%
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Feb 28 $1,459 −$23 -2%
Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ? Feb 28 $25 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Feb 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 28 $20 $0 -2%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Feb 26 $54 $0 -0%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address be between 90 and 100 minutes Feb 23 $54 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Feb 21 $78 −$78 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Feb 21 $77 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Feb 21 $77 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Feb 21 $76 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Feb 21 $75 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 21 $75 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Feb 21 $73 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Feb 21 $42 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 21 $72 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Feb 21 $69 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 20 $69 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 20 $68 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 20 $67 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Feb 20 $66 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - February 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Feb 20 $65 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 20 $65 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Feb 20 $64 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Feb 20 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Feb 20 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Feb 20 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Feb 20 $60 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 20 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 20 $59 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - February 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 20 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 20 $57 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 20 $56 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 20 $56 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? BUY No 90¢ $18 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? BUY No 90¢ $10 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jul BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $48 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $32 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $33 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? SELL No 3¢ $3 3h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? SELL No 57¢ $3 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? BUY No 6¢ $0 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? BUY No 6¢ $3 3h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY No 57¢ $3 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? BUY No 11¢ $0 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? BUY No 12¢ $6 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? BUY No 12¢ $0 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $30 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $32 6h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $41 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $16 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 6h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $43 6h
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $17 6h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $27 6h
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $12 38d
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $5 38d
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by les BUY No 89¢ $18 39d
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $10 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.35 · official $87.35 (match) · 434 history records