Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8c8…f270 sports 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-3%) realized −$13 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate68%135W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$10
crypto 19% −$6
other 15% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +3.3% -6.6% 68% 37% -12.0%
≤30d 184 -3.0% -12.2% 68% 57% -10.0%
≤90d 199 -3.5% -12.7% 68% 57% -13.2%
all 199 -3.5% -12.7% 68% 57% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 57% -13.2%
10% -21.0% 37% -21.5%
15% -28.6% 26% -29.1%
20% -35.6% 15% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses135 / 64
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)199 / 202
History coverage52d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +75%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$5 -55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +49%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $1 $0 -5%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 09 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $3 −$1 -28%
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Yosuke Watanuki Jun 08 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Storm Hunter vs Aliaksandra Sasnovi Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Imabari win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan Jun 07 $2 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 07 $3 +$1 +42%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Hannah Klugman Jun 07 $5 +$1 +12%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 07 $3 +$1 +23%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Aoi Ito Jun 07 $2 $0 +17%
Overwatch: SuperBad vs O2 Blast (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 07 $2 $0 +12%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $3 $0 +16%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $3 +$1 +17%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $3 $0 +8%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $2 +$1 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $2 +$1 +27%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $2 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3 $0 +8%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +38%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $2 $0 +17%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 +$1 +61%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +20%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $7 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 38h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 38h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 40h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 59¢ $1 2d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 76¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 90¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 97¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 50¢ $1 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 79¢ $2 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 77¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 77¢ $1 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $1 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $2 5d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 85¢ $2 5d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Washington Nationals 100¢ $5 5d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 92¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.64 · official $19.64 (match) · 501 history records