Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8c7…0367 other 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,000 (-24%) realized −$1,001 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%29W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$132
7 days−$255
14 days−$255
30 days−$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$877
other 33% −$523
sports 20% +$279
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +7.1% -3.1% 25% 25% -19.9%
≤30d 103 +7.1% -3.1% 25% 25% -19.9%
≤90d 103 +7.1% -3.1% 25% 25% -19.9%
all 107 +6.9% -3.3% 27% 27% -34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 27% -34.3%
10% -12.5% 22% -40.6%
15% -21.0% 21% -46.4%
20% -28.7% 21% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$29 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$1,001
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses29 / 78
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage164d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $31 −$28 -91%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +30%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $15 −$11 -68%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 −$11 -69%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 −$24 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $13 −$11 -84%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $196 +$29 +15%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $41 +$143 +350%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $10 −$7 -68%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $12 −$10 -78%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -12%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $38 +$84 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$37 +180%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $24 −$24 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -91%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -42%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $6 −$4 -62%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 +$12 +202%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $20 −$19 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$154 +1494%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$2 -40%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -45%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 $0 -9%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 1¢ $3 51m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $19 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $31 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 4¢ $2 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 25¢ $13 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 13¢ $12 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $166 7h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $2 7h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $28 7h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 7h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.71 · official $10.71 (match) · 300 history records