Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:49:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8c7…3726 crypto 250 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,566 (+20%) realized +$12,098 · open +$1,468
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%79W / 162L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$273per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$6,579now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,424
7 days−$2,424
14 days−$2,424
30 days−$2,424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 39% +$15,703
other 21% −$2,234
crypto 17% +$794
sports 12% −$3,782
world 10% +$2,664
politics 2% −$1,395
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +20.4% +8.9% 46% 38% -39.2%
≤30d 13 +20.4% +8.9% 46% 38% -39.2%
≤90d 202 -8.4% -17.1% 35% 32% +10.6%
all 241 -13.5% -21.7% 33% 31% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 31% +5.9%
10% -29.2% 30% -4.3%
15% -36.0% 29% -13.5%
20% -42.3% 28% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$367 vs −$115 · ×3.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$6,579
Realized+$12,098
Unrealized+$1,468
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses79 / 162
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions9
Markets (closed)241 / 250
History coverage109d
Avg bet$273
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $3,780 $3,765 −$15 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8PM ET Down 1¢ 50¢ $25 $1,339 +$1,314 (+5255%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $555 $535 −$20 (-4%)
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) Uruguay 8¢ 9¢ $300 $338 +$38 (+12%)
Spread: Uruguay (-4.5) Uruguay 3¢ 7¢ $131 $302 +$171 (+130%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $139 $138 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $55 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $66 $49 −$17 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 152 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $162 +$226 +140%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $265 −$265 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 22 $385 +$581 +151%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 22 $644 −$609 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$109 +414%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $80 +$48 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$56 +108%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 22 $565 −$565 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $1,823 −$1,651 -91%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,154 −$277 -24%
Spread: Uruguay (-5.5) Jun 22 $82 −$82 -100%
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Jun 21 $2,107 +$46 +2%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 20 $329 −$69 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 20 $412 +$648 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 20 $201 −$190 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 20 $436 +$556 +128%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 20 $20 +$22 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 20 $438 −$420 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 20 $225 −$215 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 20 $203 −$195 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 20 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 20 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 20 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 20 $21 +$38 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 20 $31 +$44 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 20 $47 −$45 -96%
SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 4.5 May 17 $30 +$12 +40%
FC Schalke 04 vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 3.5 May 17 $30 +$18 +60%
FC Schalke 04 vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 2.5 May 17 $20 +$30 +146%
FC Schalke 04 vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 1.5 May 17 $10 +$42 +414%
SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 3.5 May 17 $30 +$28 +93%
Will LASK Linz win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $36 +$42 +119%
Exact Score: SK Sturm Graz 2 - 0 SK Rapid? May 17 $17 +$137 +785%
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $12 −$11 -98%
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: SK Sturm Graz 2 - 1 SK Rapid? May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: SK Sturm Graz 1 - 0 SK Rapid? May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: FK Austria Wien 2 - 0 LASK Linz? May 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $31 −$30 -98%
SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5 May 17 $20 −$20 -98%
SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 1.5 May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 0.5 May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. SC Preußen Münster end in a draw? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
FC Schalke 04 vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 0.5 May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf end in a draw? May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $16 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $647 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $383 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $647 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,578.64 · official $6,578.64 (match) · 1968 history records