Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:25:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc8c2…2d1c
other · 33 markets active 5h ago
3.0score
+$14,173 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$14,828 · open −$655
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$202
Realized+$14,828
Unrealized−$655
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses4 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage159d
Avg bet$2,236
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit36%
Chart Positions 1 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$6,496
30 days−$6,496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 24¢ 6¢ $857 $202 −$655 (-76%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 1? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $5,000 $0 −$5,000 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1,425 $0 −$1,425 (-100%)
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $298 $0 −$298 (-100%)
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 1? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $8,635 $0 −$8,635 (-100%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $8,000 $0 −$8,000 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $2,332 $0 −$2,332 (-100%)
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $2,488 $0 −$2,488 (-100%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2,100 $0 −$2,100 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 1? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2,500 $0 −$2,500 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 1? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $6,017 −$5,133 -85%
SBF released from custody in 2026? Jun 02 $2,000 −$1,363 -68%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 08 $8,635 −$8,635 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 08 $8,000 −$8,000 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Mar 07 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 07 $2,332 −$2,332 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 03 $1,425 −$1,425 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 02 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Jupiter be accused of insider trading? Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Infinex FDV above $400M one day after launch? Mar 01 $970 −$970 -100%
Sentient FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Mar 01 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Mar 01 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Moonshot be accused of insider trading? Mar 01 $150 −$150 -100%
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 01 $2,349 −$2,349 -100%
Will Upbit be accused of insider trading? Mar 01 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Sentient FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 01 $650 −$650 -100%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Mar 01 $2,325 −$2,325 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 1? Feb 28 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 1? Feb 28 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 1? Feb 28 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 1? Feb 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $7,073 +$5,763 +82%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Feb 16 $5,191 +$10,404 +200%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Feb 16 $5,597 +$49,174 +878%
Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 23 $670 +$1,450 +217%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 22 $2,488 −$2,488 -100%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Jan 22 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch? Jan 22 $1,000 −$503 -50%
Infinex FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jan 22 $500 −$281 -56%
Infinex FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 22 $485 −$314 -65%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Jan 22 $298 −$298 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% +$52,051
world 30% −$22,391
crypto 21% −$14,833
tech 1% −$655
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 24¢ $883 4h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $884 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $496 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $974 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $418 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $654 10d
SBF released from custody in 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $637 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2,486 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $988 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $2,635 96d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,000 96d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $1,000 96d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,000 97d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,000 97d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1,000 97d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $2,332 97d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $5,000 97d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $2,000 97d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $3,000 97d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $425 101d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY Yes 6¢ $1,000 102d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,000 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 1? BUY Yes 8¢ $500 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 1? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,000 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 1? BUY Yes 25¢ $1,000 103d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 1? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,000 103d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 1? BUY Yes 5¢ $200 103d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 1? BUY Yes 32¢ $2,000 103d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 1? BUY Yes 31¢ $2,000 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 1? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,000 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-44.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -76.7% -79.0% 0% 0% -82.8%
≤90d 2 -76.7% -79.0% 0% 0% -82.8%
all 32 -39.0% -44.8% 12% 12% +8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -44.8% 12% +8.9%
10% ← realistic here -50.1% 12% -1.5%
15% -54.9% 12% -11.1%
20% -59.3% 12% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.93 · official $201.93 (match) · 91 history records