Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:25:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C8 0xc8c1…8c6b weather 586 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,022 (+9%) realized +$1,180 · open −$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate45%252W / 314L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$151
14 days+$68
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 79% −$436
other 6% −$148
tech 4% +$242
world 3% +$113
politics 3% −$107
sports 3% +$318
finance 2% +$2
economics 0% +$22
crypto 0% −$4
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -11.9% -20.3% 11% 11% -79.9%
≤30d 33 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 27% -0.0%
≤90d 70 +2.5% -7.3% 39% 30% +4.1%
all 566 -16.7% -24.6% 45% 17% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.6% 17% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -31.8% 13% -21.8%
15% -38.4% 11% -29.4%
20% -44.5% 10% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized+$1,180
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses252 / 314
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions46
Markets (closed)566 / 586
History coverage128d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 566 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $56 $59 +$3 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $26 $30 +$3 (+12%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Yes 40¢ 6¢ $119 $17 −$102 (-86%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $26 $11 −$14 (-56%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-44%)
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-43%)
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $6 $5 −$2 (-23%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+40%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 5¢ $26 $4 −$22 (-85%)
Will Joseph Chaplik be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? Yes 15¢ 49¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+225%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-52%)
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-34%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 82¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will John Myrick win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? Yes 11¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+96%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? Yes 22¢ 33¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 6¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+73%)
Will Steve Hershey win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? No 77¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 26¢ 21¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Gina Swoboda be the Republican nominee for AZ-01? Yes 21¢ 7¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-65%)
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No 35¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 255 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Odds of US strikes Iran in February over 50% by Feb 13? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -110%
Republican House Odds Up or Down this week? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 10–20%? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
ICE forced to unmask by February 28? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -110%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 12? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Game Handicap: VKS (-1.5) vs Leviatan Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Maddie Mastro (USA) win the gold medal for Snowboard Halfpipe - W Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.50 (HIGH) by Februa Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Jun 16 $16 −$27 -169%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released on February 12, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $40 −$38 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -37%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $52 +$9 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $43 −$41 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 09 $28 +$19 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 10? Jun 08 $18 −$17 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $39 +$11 +27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 08 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 10? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -96%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $40 −$20 -50%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $32 +$18 +55%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $19 +$11 +60%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? Jun 06 $311 +$259 +83%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Madison Sheahan be the Republican nominee for OH-09? Jun 06 $2 $0 +7%
Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? Jun 06 $8 +$1 +13%
Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virg Jun 06 $6 +$4 +65%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $2 +$9 +462%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? May 21 $13 −$13 -97%
GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026? May 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 11 $36 −$15 -42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 23? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 22? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 23? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $100 +$31 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Marc Apr 06 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 19? Apr 06 $19 +$34 +179%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 06 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Mauricio Pochettino be appointed as manager of Tottenham? Apr 06 $2 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 30? Apr 06 $9 +$4 +46%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 12-15, 2026? Apr 06 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 24? Apr 06 $7 +$29 +410%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 30? Apr 06 $20 +$31 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 28¢ $12 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 28¢ $5 7m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 28¢ $16 7m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 12¢ $27 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 28¢ $24 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY Yes 6¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 10? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.00 · official $186.92 (match) · 3500 history records