Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C8 0xc8bd…0d3a crypto 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$33 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate90%71W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 32% −$6
crypto 18% −$14
other 17% $0
sports 16% −$5
politics 16% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 15 -6.4% -15.4% 93% 0% -13.7%
≤90d 49 -1.5% -10.9% 92% 2% -9.7%
all 79 -0.8% -10.3% 90% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses71 / 8
Open positions13
Markets (closed)79 / 92
History coverage148d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 93¢ 86¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 77¢ 99¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 9? Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 17 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on January 31? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in May 2026? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 25-31? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 May 25-31? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 14? May 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 15? May 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 22 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market May 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Cont May 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 16? Apr 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? Apr 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? Apr 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model for math on March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Apr 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 28 $4,798 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 17? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 17? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on March 17? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Mar 17 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $11 7d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $16 7d
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 7d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $11 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $13 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $15 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $17 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $16 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 18d
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 18d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $12 25d
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 25d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 25d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $19 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $16 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $15 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $13 34d
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $11 64d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 70d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 70d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 70d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 70d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $11 70d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL No 100¢ $10 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.44 · official $127.92 (match) · 218 history records