Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:30:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8bb…d88f weather 548 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$402 (-3%) realized −$401 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate32%175W / 370L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$385
weather 5% −$49
other 4% +$26
tech 2% +$5
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +29.5% +17.2% 67% 67% +12.3%
≤30d 3 +29.5% +17.2% 67% 67% +12.3%
≤90d 376 -8.0% -16.8% 12% 12% -9.4%
all 545 -6.3% -15.2% 32% 18% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 18% -11.9%
10% -23.3% 16% -20.4%
15% -30.7% 14% -28.1%
20% -37.5% 11% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$401
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses175 / 370
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)545 / 548
History coverage167d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 545 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 66¢ 66¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Netherlands 52¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 350 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$34 +134%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $30 +$17 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 22? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 22? Apr 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 22? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 22? Apr 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 13 $10 +$10 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on April 7? Apr 12 $3 +$17 +567%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 6? Apr 12 $3 +$17 +567%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 7? Apr 12 $3 +$17 +669%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 7? Apr 12 $2 +$18 +809%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 5? Apr 12 $3 +$17 +614%
Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 7? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 7? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on April 7? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 7? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 7? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on April 7? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 7? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 7? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 7? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 7? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 7? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 7? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 7? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 7? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on April 7? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 7? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on April 7? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 7? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 7? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ap Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 7? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 7? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 7? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on April 7? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 7? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 7? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 7 Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 7? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 7? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on April 6? Apr 07 $3 +$17 +567%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 6? Apr 07 $3 +$17 +567%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on April 5? Apr 07 $3 +$17 +614%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 6? Apr 07 $3 +$17 +567%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 6? Apr 07 $2 +$18 +1011%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 6? Apr 07 $3 +$17 +614%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 6? Apr 07 $3 +$17 +567%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 66¢ $30 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 52¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 29h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 22? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 64d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 65d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 65d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 22? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 65d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 65d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 74d
Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $0 74d
Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 74d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 7? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 78d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 7? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 78d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on April 7? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 78d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 7? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 78d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 7? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 78d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 79d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 79d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 79d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 79d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 79d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 79d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 79d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on April 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 79d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on April 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 79d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on April 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 79d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on April 7? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.65 · official $88.65 (match) · 1300 history records