Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:33:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc8af…4ecf sports 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$1,160 (+5%) realized +$1,160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%27W / 21L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$469per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$277est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$500
7 days−$500
14 days−$500
30 days+$1,096
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$1,063
other 2% −$333
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -82.7% -84.3% 0% 0% -76.5%
≤30d 6 -4.3% -13.4% 33% 33% +0.9%
≤90d 39 +9.0% -1.4% 54% 46% -6.5%
all 48 +3.6% -6.2% 56% 46% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 46% -6.6%
10% -15.2% 40% -15.5%
15% -23.4% 33% -23.7%
20% -30.9% 31% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$659) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$194 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses27 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$277
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage198d
Avg bet$469
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $173 −$170 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $505 −$330 -65%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $1,619 +$965 +60%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $2,380 −$258 -11%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $3,602 −$290 -8%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $1,192 +$1,180 +99%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $945 +$722 +76%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $474 +$499 +105%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $1,339 +$410 +31%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $63 +$7 +11%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $210 −$44 -21%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 30 $72 +$55 +76%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 28 $776 −$357 -46%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 26 $659 −$659 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 25 $402 +$191 +48%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Gujarat Titans Apr 24 $244 +$19 +8%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 23 $1,134 −$148 -13%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 20 $1,172 −$200 -17%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Apr 18 $2,036 −$387 -19%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Apr 18 $1,595 −$638 -40%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 18 $101 +$10 +10%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Punjab Kings Apr 17 $82 +$46 +57%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi Apr 15 $74 +$6 +8%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 15 $52 +$55 +105%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 13 $43 +$23 +55%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Capitals Apr 12 $98 −$6 -6%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 11 $11 +$13 +120%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 09 $100 −$95 -95%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 08 $125 −$125 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 04 $135 +$91 +67%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Punjab Kings Apr 04 $99 +$135 +136%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 03 $210 −$210 -100%
SA20: Sunrisers Eastern Cape vs Pretoria Capitals (Game 1) Apr 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi Capitals Apr 01 $150 +$158 +105%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans Mar 31 $193 +$59 +31%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Mar 30 $89 +$104 +117%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Sunrisers Hydera Mar 29 $23 +$16 +70%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 09 $1 $0 +3%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 09 $70 +$2 +3%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 06 $61 +$10 +16%
T20 World Cup: India vs West Indies Mar 01 $47 +$14 +30%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Mar 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Big Bash League: Sydney Thunder vs Perth Scorchers (Game 1) Mar 01 $30 −$30 -100%
GPT ads by December 31? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
ODI Series Australia vs India, Women: Australia vs India Mar 01 $2 $0 +15%
Will Australia win? Dec 07 $5 +$3 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $173 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $174 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $252 32h
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 62¢ $102 20d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 62¢ $152 20d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 62¢ $152 20d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 62¢ $152 20d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 62¢ $152 20d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 62¢ $152 20d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 62¢ $152 20d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 62¢ $152 20d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 62¢ $152 20d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 62¢ $152 20d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 62¢ $152 20d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals SELL Kolkata Knight Riders 13¢ $232 25d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Delhi Capitals 69¢ $55 25d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Delhi Capitals 69¢ $252 25d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Delhi Capitals 69¢ $252 25d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Delhi Capitals 69¢ $252 25d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Delhi Capitals 69¢ $252 25d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Delhi Capitals 69¢ $252 25d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 55¢ $152 25d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 55¢ $152 25d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 55¢ $152 25d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 55¢ $152 25d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 56¢ $152 25d
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 57¢ $152 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records