Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:11:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8ae…93ea world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24,400 (-9%) realized −$24,246 · open −$154
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate79%37W / 10L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,206per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$910now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,686
7 days−$2,002
14 days−$34,166
30 days−$25,542
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$26,616
sports 14% +$632
other 5% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +11.6% +0.9% 81% 50% -25.2%
≤30d 25 +1.8% -7.9% 76% 48% -37.1%
≤90d 46 +8.0% -2.3% 78% 50% -18.5%
all 47 +7.9% -2.3% 79% 49% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 49% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 38% -26.3%
15% -20.2% 21% -33.4%
20% -28.0% 15% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$6,784) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
12.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$730 vs −$5,287 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$910
Realized−$24,246
Unrealized−$154
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses37 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 51
History coverage158d
Avg bet$5,206
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $1,052 $894 −$158 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+42%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $1,577 −$967 -61%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,014 −$102 -10%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $6 +$4 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $692 +$18 +2%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $2,692 −$1,782 -66%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $541 +$56 +10%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $713 +$23 +3%
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $1,940 +$58 +3%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $155 +$22 +14%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $10 +$6 +60%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $7 +$2 +29%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $2,054 +$648 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $7 +$3 +40%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $2,820 +$431 +15%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $7,217 +$135 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $35,614 −$32,731 -92%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 02 $114 +$1 +1%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $10 +$7 +70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $16,392 +$5,580 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $9,969 +$3,057 +31%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? May 28 $31,168 −$10,829 -35%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 27 $807 +$329 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $10,120 +$803 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $4,492 +$3,983 +89%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? May 01 $10 +$6 +64%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $2 +$3 +146%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $442 +$94 +21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $696 +$34 +5%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 26 $27,297 +$2,510 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $6,784 −$6,342 -94%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $22,002 +$998 +4%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $78 +$21 +27%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $19,160 +$3,467 +18%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 20 $99 −$56 -57%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $28,234 +$3,186 +11%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $23,188 +$1,235 +5%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 15 $67 +$32 +48%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? Apr 13 $2,374 +$174 +7%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 26 $1,009 +$78 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 37¢ $610 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $930 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 50¢ $912 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $647 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,014 3h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 32¢ $910 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 98¢ $686 30h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $596 30h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 93¢ $373 31h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 94¢ $455 31h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $735 31h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1,864 31h
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,998 31h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 95¢ $95 31h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 96¢ $1 31h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $7 31h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $281 31h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 96¢ $103 31h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $107 31h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $7 32h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $206 32h
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $1,940 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 38h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $927 38h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 63¢ $177 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $55 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $909.72 · official $909.72 (match) · 940 history records