Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:21:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8ad…7889 sports 773 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$331 (-3%) realized −$213 · open −$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate79%664W / 174L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day104.2pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$366
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 306 -21.9% -29.3% 65% 40% -66.5%
≤30d 838 -4.1% -13.3% 79% 46% -43.8%
≤90d 838 -4.1% -13.3% 79% 46% -43.8%
all 838 -4.1% -13.3% 79% 46% -43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 46% -43.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 28% -49.2%
15% -29.1% 12% -54.1%
20% -36.1% 3% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$60 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized−$213
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses664 / 174
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions14
Markets (closed)838 / 773
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day104.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 838 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Shintaro Mochizuki 80¢ 90¢ $53 $59 +$6 (+12%)
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Stefano Travaglia 84¢ 82¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jakub Mensik 73¢ 66¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-10%)
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 73¢ 56¢ $29 $22 −$7 (-23%)
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Geoffrey Blancaneaux 78¢ 69¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-11%)
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Max Hans Rehberg 73¢ 30¢ $29 $12 −$17 (-59%)
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Juan Martin Chun-Hsin Tseng 93¢ 100¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+8%)
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena Roberto Carballes Baena 92¢ 96¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Hubert Hurkacz 91¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Arthur Fery 91¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Maks Kasnikowski 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Alexander Zverev 94¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Bernard Tomic 75¢ 0¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-99%)
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Lukas Neumayer 73¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 171 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cervia: Juan Martin vs Michele Ribecai Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Wuning 2: Fajing Sun vs Li Tu Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Wuning 2: Li Tu vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Santos: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Ryan Dickerson Jun 16 $160 −$160 -100%
Savannah: Kilian Feldbausch vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Zagreb: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Josip Simundza Jun 16 $161 −$161 -100%
Cordoba: Miguel Tobon vs Andrea Collarini Jun 16 $160 −$160 -100%
Ostrava: Jonas Forejtek vs Hynek Barton Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Santos: Murkel Dellien vs Nick Hardt Jun 16 $160 −$160 -100%
Cervia: Manoj Dhamne Manas vs Mitchell Krueger Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Zagreb: Jan Choinski vs Daniel Galan Jun 16 $161 −$161 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Kinoa vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - European Pr Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marco Trungelliti vs Zachary Svajda Jun 16 $161 −$161 -100%
Jiujiang: Sho Shimabukuro vs Keegan Smith Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs T Jun 16 $123 −$123 -100%
Francavilla: Juan Carlos Prado vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 16 $161 −$161 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Wuxi: Fajing Sun vs Rio Noguchi Jun 16 $161 −$161 -100%
Valencia: Dusan Lajovic vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 16 $161 −$161 -100%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Max Schoenhaus Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Valencia: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaume Munar Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Bengaluru 2: Joshua Charlton vs Ognjen Milic Jun 16 $160 −$160 -100%
Wuxi: Alastair Gray vs Jie Cui Jun 16 $161 −$161 -100%
Cagliari: Hubert Hurkacz vs Roman Andres Burruchaga Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch S Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Rome: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Jonas Forejtek Jun 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Stefano Travaglia vs Stan Jun 16 $123 −$123 -100%
Gwangju: Pavel Kotov vs Mikhail Kukushkin Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Oeiras 4: Zdenek Kolar vs Hugo Dellien Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Oeiras 4: Henrique Rocha vs Roman Safiullin Jun 16 $161 −$161 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Alex Hernandez vs Naoya Honda Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic Jun 16 $161 −$161 -100%
Geneva Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Mariano Navone Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Tristan Schoolkate vs Kimmer Coppeja Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Oeiras 4: Cristian Garin vs Lautaro Midon Jun 16 $161 −$161 -100%
Savannah: Michael Antonius vs Mitchell Krueger Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Henri Squire vs Cristian Garin Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Ostrava: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nerman Fatic Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Madrid Open: Cameron Norrie vs Tomas Machac Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Mauthausen: Hugo Gaston vs Darwin Blanch Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Cordoba: Arklon Del Pino vs Juan Pablo Varillas Jun 16 $160 −$160 -100%
Cordoba: Franco Roncadelli vs Nicolas Kicker Jun 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 60¢ $7 8m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 70¢ $7 8m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 80¢ $7 9m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 85¢ $7 9m
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 92¢ $1 9m
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 90¢ $10 10m
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 70¢ $7 10m
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 70¢ $7 10m
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 80¢ $7 12m
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 80¢ $5 12m
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 80¢ $2 13m
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 85¢ $4 16m
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 85¢ $7 16m
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 85¢ $3 16m
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 80¢ $7 21m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 94¢ $1 21m
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Geoffrey Blancaneaux 70¢ $7 22m
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 80¢ $7 25m
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Maks Kasnikowski 95¢ $1 26m
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 85¢ $7 27m
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 85¢ $7 27m
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 91¢ $1 27m
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 91¢ $10 28m
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 92¢ $1 28m
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 92¢ $10 28m
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Geoffrey Blancaneaux 80¢ $3 31m
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Geoffrey Blancaneaux 80¢ $4 31m
Parma: Miguel Damas vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 91¢ $1 34m
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Geoffrey Blancaneaux 85¢ $7 35m
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 91¢ $1 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.84 · official $208.84 (match) · 3500 history records