Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C8 0xc8ac…2461 sports 239 markets active 9h ago coverage 348d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$252 (-24%) realized −$250 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%107W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$8
14 days+$42
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$105
other 30% −$66
culture 11% −$69
crypto 4% −$11
tech 1% +$1
world 1% −$9
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +31.1% +18.6% 43% 41% -4.5%
≤30d 64 +71.2% +54.9% 48% 47% +5.1%
≤90d 74 +59.3% +44.2% 47% 46% +2.7%
all 234 +3.8% -6.1% 46% 43% -33.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 43% -33.6%
10% -15.1% 38% -39.9%
15% -23.3% 30% -45.7%
20% -30.8% 26% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

348d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$250
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses107 / 127
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)234 / 239
History coverage348d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 87¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +53%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 +$2 +119%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +37%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $3 +$5 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +36%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +82%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$2 +197%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 +$2 +88%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $2 +$2 +101%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 +$4 +140%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $8 −$2 -23%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 +$5 +114%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$8 -88%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $4 +$2 +46%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2 +$10 +505%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +442%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$9 +307%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7 +$1 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$19 +1843%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$8 +158%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $2 11h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $2 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $2 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Under 12¢ $1 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $3 14h
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists BUY Yes 21¢ $2 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $2 14h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $4 14h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $4 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 14h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 16h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $2 16h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $1 16h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $2 17h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 36h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 36h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 39h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.92 · official $11.92 (match) · 515 history records