Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:31:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C8
0xc8ab…6418
other · 250 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$246,999 -41%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$37,640 · open −$314,842
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$1,893,674
Realized+$37,640
Unrealized−$314,842
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses39 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions499
Markets (closed)69 / 250
Avg bet$2,392
Trades / day3433.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 499 History 69 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37,640
7 days+$37,640
14 days+$37,640
30 days+$37,640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $225,000 $382,725 +$157,725 (+70%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 91¢ 76¢ $271,708 $228,137 −$43,571 (-16%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $135,373 $136,857 +$1,485 (+1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $225,000 $67,275 −$157,725 (-70%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 85¢ $57,889 $54,990 −$2,900 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 76¢ $45,849 $47,555 +$1,706 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 60¢ $57,002 $42,596 −$14,406 (-25%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $39,689 $39,754 +$65 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 94¢ 92¢ $38,834 $37,851 −$983 (-3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 93¢ 92¢ $35,615 $35,424 −$191 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? No 96¢ 96¢ $33,666 $33,634 −$32 (-0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 91¢ 72¢ $40,044 $31,687 −$8,358 (-21%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 80¢ 74¢ $29,940 $27,892 −$2,048 (-7%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 92¢ 81¢ $29,265 $25,941 −$3,325 (-11%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 86¢ $27,919 $25,253 −$2,665 (-10%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? No 90¢ 88¢ $23,849 $23,555 −$294 (-1%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 62¢ $18,312 $22,576 +$4,264 (+23%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 66¢ 55¢ $27,094 $22,284 −$4,810 (-18%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 52¢ 52¢ $21,502 $21,233 −$270 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 95¢ 93¢ $14,787 $14,476 −$311 (-2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? No 83¢ 79¢ $14,923 $14,135 −$788 (-5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 81¢ $12,026 $13,882 +$1,856 (+15%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 85¢ 66¢ $17,023 $13,253 −$3,770 (-22%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $12,875 $12,909 +$35 (+0%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 71¢ 80¢ $10,436 $11,841 +$1,405 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $8,900 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $6,510 +$18,869 +290%
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $190 −$27 -14%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +1419%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $69 −$44 -64%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 12? Jun 12 $83 −$32 -38%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $2,721 +$2,128 +78%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $6,843 +$990 +14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 12 $16,638 +$179 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $871 +$1,527 +175%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $0 +$100 +50025%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 12 $152 $0 +0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$4 +358%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $51 +$3 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 12? Jun 12 $147 −$19 -13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $4,652 +$5,459 +117%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $480 +$24 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $197 $0 -0%
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $88 $0 +0%
Will Valentín Barco be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $28,390 +$1,042 +4%
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 12 $19 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $0 +$10 +4900%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $715 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $8 +$218 +2731%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 12 $810 +$860 +106%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $55 −$2 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 12 $150 +$8 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 12 $860 +$2,440 +284%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 12 $80 +$582 +728%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $31 +$187 +606%
Will Trump say "Georgia" 10+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$79 +1210%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 12 $110 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Citizenship" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "College" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Star" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "State" 5+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 +5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $705 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $27 +$363 +1358%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $61 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -47%
Will Trump say "Football" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $32 +$569 +1779%
Will Trump say "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" during Tele-Ral Jun 12 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $65 −$65 -100%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $58 +$545 +940%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 52% −$41,400
world 28% −$78,969
tech 10% +$3,876
politics 7% −$160,960
finance 4% +$434
sports 0% −$296
culture 0% +$5
weather 0% +$109
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( BUY No 66¢ $98 1m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $98 1m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $542 1m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $630 1m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $590 1m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 87¢ $19 3m
Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY No 98¢ $1,966 3m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $30 3m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $318 4m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $1,972 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $1,954 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $11 5m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 5m
Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 6m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $37 8m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $610 8m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $697 12m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $1 12m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $1 12m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $1 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $620 12m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $30 12m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $20 12m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $20 13m
Will Takehiro Tomiyasu be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 14m
Will Takehiro Tomiyasu be in Japan's Starting 11? BUY No 88¢ $176 14m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1,285 17m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $2,915 17m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 99¢ $37 17m
Will 7+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY No 53¢ $11 19m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+304.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +347.2% +304.6% 57% 33% +29.3%
≤30d 69 +347.2% +304.6% 57% 33% +29.3%
≤90d 69 +347.2% +304.6% 57% 33% +29.3%
all 69 +347.2% +304.6% 57% 33% +29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3433.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +304.6% 33% +29.3%
10% +265.9% 32% +16.9%
15% ← realistic here +230.6% 32% +5.6%
20% +198.2% 32% -4.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,893,673.94 · official $1,895,237.79 (match) · 3500 history records