Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C8 0xc8a6…5d97 world 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$41,986 (+14%) realized +$42,185 · open −$199
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate77%67W / 20L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$3,400per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$368est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,033now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$276
7 days+$1,860
14 days−$1,871
30 days−$1,995
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% +$39,100
sports 8% +$3,285
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +37.9% +24.8% 75% 75% +4.8%
≤30d 27 +16.9% +5.7% 63% 63% -18.8%
≤90d 49 +16.0% +4.9% 67% 59% -10.1%
all 87 +15.5% +4.5% 77% 37% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.5% 37% +3.4%
10% ← realistic here -5.5% 29% -6.5%
15% -14.6% 20% -15.5%
20% -23.0% 16% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$5,911) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$755 vs −$400 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.32 per $1 lost it wins $6.32
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$1,033
Realized+$42,185
Unrealized−$199
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses67 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$368
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage283d
Avg bet$3,400
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 60¢ 55¢ $720 $660 −$60 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Spirit 57¢ 42¢ $513 $373 −$139 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $570 +$335 +59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $1,055 +$781 +74%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $580 +$95 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $1,199 −$1,189 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $348 +$178 +51%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $936 +$245 +26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $808 −$169 -21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $377 +$243 +64%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $459 +$494 +108%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $587 +$254 +43%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $182 +$27 +15%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $491 +$105 +22%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $884 +$219 +25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,198 −$399 -33%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1,279 +$190 +15%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,326 +$399 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $654 −$647 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $678 +$202 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $948 +$496 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $397 +$103 +26%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $244 +$156 +64%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $217 −$213 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $1,573 −$1,136 -72%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $206 −$143 -69%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $4,888 −$2,498 -51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 4 Winner May 24 $127 −$125 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 15 $263 +$97 +37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 15 $98 −$96 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $158 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 13 $135 +$365 +270%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $100 −$99 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z - Map 2 Winner May 11 $1,274 +$605 +48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $140 −$137 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 04 $741 +$259 +35%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 03 $105 +$130 +124%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $325 +$115 +35%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Apr 18 $387 +$85 +22%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Apr 17 $395 −$395 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Apr 15 $375 +$94 +25%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $1,726 +$308 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Apr 14 $2,460 +$316 +13%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026? Apr 09 $3,925 +$73 +2%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026? Apr 08 $258 +$66 +26%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026? Apr 08 $2,345 −$439 -19%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 4, 2026? Apr 05 $1,008 +$49 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Play Apr 04 $74 +$58 +79%
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 04 $3,958 +$251 +6%
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 1, 2026 Apr 01 $482 +$23 +5%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026? Mar 19 $8,970 −$180 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 57¢ $59 0m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 57¢ $13 0m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 57¢ $133 0m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 57¢ $2 0m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 57¢ $20 0m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 57¢ $28 0m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 57¢ $109 0m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 57¢ $151 0m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 60¢ $729 9m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 96¢ $240 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 89¢ $665 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 57¢ $82 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 57¢ $121 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 57¢ $109 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 57¢ $156 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 57¢ $49 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 57¢ $40 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 57¢ $13 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 94¢ $466 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 94¢ $235 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 91¢ $726 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 90¢ $45 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 90¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 90¢ $344 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $1,055 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 90¢ $90 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 90¢ $462 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 90¢ $123 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 55¢ $32 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 55¢ $3 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,033.49 · official $1,033.49 (match) · 731 history records