Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:06:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8a6…57c8 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$17 (-27%) realized −$17 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip
Net edge-77%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$17
crypto 39% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-76.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -73.6% -76.1% 25% 0% -49.7%
≤30d 4 -73.6% -76.1% 25% 0% -49.7%
≤90d 4 -73.6% -76.1% 25% 0% -49.7%
all 4 -73.6% -76.1% 25% 0% -49.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -76.1% 0% -49.7%
10% -78.4% 0% -54.5%
15% -80.5% 0% -58.9%
20% -82.4% 0% -62.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -74% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $24 $20 −$4 (-17%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.84 · official $19.84 (match) · 8 history records