Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8a2…c989 crypto 410 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$108 (+4%) realized +$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate85%347W / 63L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$44
14 days+$70
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +13.7% +2.9% 100% 43% +3.0%
≤30d 24 +14.1% +3.3% 100% 50% +3.1%
≤90d 410 -0.1% -9.6% 85% 43% -6.6%
all 410 -0.1% -9.6% 85% 43% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 43% -6.6%
10% -18.2% 23% -15.5%
15% -26.1% 15% -23.7%
20% -33.4% 8% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses347 / 63
Open positions0
Markets (closed)410 / 410
History coverage40d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 410 Trades
no open positions (63 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $46 +$11 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $45 +$3 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $45 +$3 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $45 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $45 +$5 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $46 +$21 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $45 +$3 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $45 +$6 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $46 +$15 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $45 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $45 +$2 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $46 +$8 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $45 +$6 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$4 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 05 $15 +$5 +34%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 31 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 31 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $5 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +28%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +26%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 30 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +20%
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 27 $5 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +24%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 25 $5 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 25 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 21 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 19 $5 +$5 +101%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 19 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 19 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 19 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 19 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 19 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 19 $5 +$1 +18%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 19 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 19 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -98%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 19 $5 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 19 $5 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 19 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 19 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $46 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $45 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $45 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $45 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $46 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $45 8d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $45 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $46 11d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $45 11d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $45 13d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $46 15d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $45 16d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $15 17d
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $15 20d
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 25d
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 26d
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 26d
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 26d
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 26d
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 27d
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 27d
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 30d
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 31d
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 31d
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 32d
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 32d
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 33d
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 757 history records