Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:47:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C8 0xc8a1…ceb5 sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$560 (+18%) realized +$469 · open +$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%9W / 3L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,085now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$315
other 19% +$341
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +17.0% +5.8% 75% 75% +14.0%
≤30d 12 +17.0% +5.8% 75% 75% +14.0%
≤90d 12 +17.0% +5.8% 75% 75% +14.0%
all 12 +17.0% +5.8% 75% 75% +14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.8% 75% +14.0%
10% -4.3% 75% +3.1%
15% -13.6% 75% -6.9%
20% -22.0% 50% -16.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$135 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,085
Realized+$469
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses9 / 3
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner T1 67¢ 66¢ $730 $719 −$11 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs largadosypelados - Map 2 Winner largadosypelados 50¢ 100¢ $102 $202 +$101 (+99%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $162 $163 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Bakio: Paul Inchauspe vs Oscar Weightman Jun 27 $148 +$59 +40%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $215 +$151 +70%
ITF Rzeszow: Stefan Seifert vs Herman Hoeyeraal Jun 27 $167 +$98 +59%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $207 +$105 +51%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 27 $117 −$115 -99%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics - Game 3 Winner Jun 27 $86 −$85 -99%
ITF Gdansk: Mina Hodzic vs Anastasiya Sobolieva Jun 27 $232 +$92 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig Jun 27 $207 −$204 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $202 +$126 +62%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $202 +$110 +55%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw? Jun 27 $252 +$105 +42%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 27 $143 +$123 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 67¢ $737 17m
ITF Bakio: Paul Inchauspe vs Oscar Weightman BUY Paul Inchauspe 71¢ $148 7h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $164 8h
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs largadosypelados - Map 2 Winner BUY largadosypelados 50¢ $103 8h
ITF Rzeszow: Stefan Seifert vs Herman Hoeyeraal BUY Herman Hoeyeraal 62¢ $167 9h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $117 9h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics - Game 3 Winner BUY Paris Gentle Mates 63¢ $86 9h
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 58¢ $215 12h
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 66¢ $207 14h
ITF Gdansk: Mina Hodzic vs Anastasiya Sobolieva BUY Anastasiya Sobolieva 71¢ $232 14h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Jefferson Nascimento 56¢ $207 14h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Keyd 53¢ $143 27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $202 28h
Will Grêmio Novorizontino vs. Vila Nova FC end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $252 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 61¢ $202 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,084.60 · official $1,084.60 (match) · 24 history records