Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc89f…8212 sports 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%30W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$1
other 42% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 30 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 30 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 30 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses30 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage6d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Hannes Steinbach be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 160.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hannes Steinbach be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $50 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 100¢ $50 8h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $50 2d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $50 3d
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 160.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 3d
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 3d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 100¢ $50 3d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 3d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $50 4d
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 100¢ $2 4d
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 100¢ $3 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $50 4d
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group BUY TYLOO 100¢ $50 4d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 BUY M80 100¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 63 history records