Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc89d…859a other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 565d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$608 (-11%) realized −$362 · open −$246
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$665now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$38
14 days−$225
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$492
sports 36% −$216
crypto 9% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-31.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -2.8% -12.0% 45% 27% -8.1%
≤30d 15 +4.6% -5.3% 40% 27% -14.3%
≤90d 15 +4.6% -5.3% 40% 27% -14.3%
all 32 -23.7% -31.0% 34% 22% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.0% 22% -18.3%
10% -37.6% 16% -26.1%
15% -43.6% 12% -33.3%
20% -49.1% 9% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$47 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

565d coverage
Net worth$665
Realized−$362
Unrealized−$246
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 37
History coverage565d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 74¢ $420 $368 −$52 (-12%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $192 $188 −$4 (-2%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 55¢ 17¢ $275 $85 −$190 (-69%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 40¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $23 −$10 -45%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $716 −$36 -5%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $311 −$31 -10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-0 Jun 22 $203 +$157 +77%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $451 −$7 -2%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $232 +$37 +16%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $225 +$16 +7%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 18 $14 +$3 +23%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $108 +$11 +10%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 16 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-01-30? Jun 04 $20 +$80 +400%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 30 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 28 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? May 10 $56 −$51 -91%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? May 03 $459 −$21 -4%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $202 +$28 +14%
Champions LeagueQuarterfinals: Arsenal vs. Real Madrid Apr 16 $28 −$2 -7%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Champions League Quarterfinals: Barcelona vs. Dortmund Apr 16 $213 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 20 $280 +$29 +10%
Will Real Madrid beat Atletico Madrid? Feb 11 $2 +$2 +104%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in December? Jan 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Solana hit $200 in December? Jan 03 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in December? Jan 03 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Solana hit $300 in December? Jan 03 $336 +$157 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $279 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $422 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $196 25h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 43¢ $54 44h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $2 47h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $73 47h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. IR Ira BUY 2¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-0 BUY 56¢ $203 2d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $443 2d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $451 2d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $12 2d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 2d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $63 2d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $4 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $51 2d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 3d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 3d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 3¢ $42 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $100 3d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $679 3d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 86¢ $281 3d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $695 3d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $130 3d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $665.19 · official $665.19 (match) · 302 history records