Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:13:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc89d…9dc0 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3463 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,635 (+19%) realized +$1,665 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day3463.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$79
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3463 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +1.7% -8.0% 41% 8% -8.4%
≤30d 37 +1.7% -8.0% 41% 8% -8.4%
≤90d 37 +1.7% -8.0% 41% 8% -8.4%
all 37 +1.7% -8.0% 41% 8% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3463.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 8% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 3% -17.2%
15% -24.8% 3% -25.2%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
52.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$4 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$365
Realized+$1,665
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Open positions4
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$213
Trades / day3463.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 94¢ 98¢ $179 $187 +$8 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Up 91¢ 100¢ $89 $97 +$8 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Down 77¢ 98¢ $43 $54 +$11 (+26%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Up 73¢ 72¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Down 28¢ 28¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 7¢ 2¢ $15 $3 −$12 (-78%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Up 12¢ 2¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-79%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $195 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $405 +$25 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $144 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $124 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $421 +$21 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $154 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $261 −$10 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $298 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $279 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $179 +$30 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $259 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $167 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $186 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $145 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $167 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $330 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $259 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $306 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $221 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $111 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $189 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $229 −$9 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $280 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $240 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $253 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $360 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $275 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $384 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $395 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $133 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $135 −$8 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $124 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $116 −$7 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $151 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$44 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $17 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $36 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $18 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $8 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $11 6m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $365.33 · official $365.33 (match) · 3500 history records