Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc899…a68a other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%4W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% $0
politics 30% $0
crypto 15% $0
sports 10% $0
world 5% $0
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 -0.0% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 20 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses4 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage121d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $117 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $117 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $117 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $117 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $117 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $117 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 08 $117 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $119 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $119 $0 +0%
Will Matt McCarty win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $119 $0 +0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $119 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 25 $118 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $118 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 14 $118 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $118 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $118 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 04 $118 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $118 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $117 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $117 21h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $117 17d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $117 18d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $117 28d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $117 29d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $117 32d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $117 33d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $117 43d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $117 43d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $117 45d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $117 45d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $117 49d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 50d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 50d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $117 52d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $117 53d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $119 72d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $119 73d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $119 77d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $119 77d
Will Matt McCarty win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 100¢ $119 80d
Will Matt McCarty win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $119 81d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $119 86d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $119 86d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $119 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $73 97d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $25 97d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $21 97d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $118 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records