Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:25:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc899…c3c1 sports 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$131 (-9%) realized −$118 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate73%37W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$77
14 days−$89
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$129
other 16% +$2
politics 8% −$12
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -5.2% -14.2% 73% 27% -20.2%
≤30d 51 -9.5% -18.2% 73% 39% -18.5%
≤90d 51 -9.5% -18.2% 73% 39% -18.5%
all 51 -9.5% -18.2% 73% 39% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 39% -18.5%
10% -26.0% 18% -26.3%
15% -33.1% 16% -33.4%
20% -39.7% 2% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$16 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized−$118
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses37 / 14
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions6
Markets (closed)51 / 57
History coverage27d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 90¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 25¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 55¢ 48¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 77¢ 86¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C DFX Peek 94¢ 85¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 85¢ 84¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $50 +$10 +19%
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs BESTIA Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Li Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $10 +$6 +62%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 11 $80 +$7 +9%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +7%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $376 −$87 -23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $20 +$3 +15%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $20 −$8 -38%
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $20 +$2 +10%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $20 +$3 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +8%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $130 +$5 +4%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 +$2 +18%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Riyadh Falcons (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 07 $10 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $10 +$4 +42%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $10 +$1 +8%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $40 −$24 -60%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha Jun 06 $10 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ALKA (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 04 $10 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 04 $10 +$1 +7%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis (BO5) - Esports World Cup South Am Jun 04 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL: Deer Gaming vs The Ruddy Sack (BO5) - NLC Playoffs Jun 04 $10 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs ReThink (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pla Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South A Jun 03 $10 +$1 +14%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $10 +$4 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $10 +$5 +46%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advan Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $10 +$4 +36%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 30 $10 +$3 +26%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Circuit X Bas May 30 $10 +$2 +17%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $20 +$4 +20%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction (BO5) - North American Challengers Leag May 30 $10 +$4 +40%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs May 30 $20 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs AM Gaming (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Se May 29 $10 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Pla May 29 $10 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Euro May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 98¢ $30 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL GenOne 87¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL GenOne 74¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 62¢ $20 2h
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Carlos Maria Zarate 82¢ $10 24h
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs BESTIA Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Li BUY BESTIA Academy 99¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY DFX Peek 94¢ $20 25h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 72¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 74¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 87¢ $10 28h
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South BUY Estar Backs 92¢ $10 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 95¢ $10 4d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOS 61¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $10 5d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame BUY RED Canids 89¢ $10 5d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA BUY LOS 92¢ $20 6d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA BUY LOS 92¢ $40 6d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA BUY LOS 92¢ $10 6d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA BUY LOS 89¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL XLG Gaming 99¢ $84 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 86¢ $73 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL XLG Gaming 37¢ $66 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL XLG Gaming 39¢ $1 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 55¢ $61 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL XLG Gaming 54¢ $41 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 64¢ $101 6d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL Global Esports 55¢ $47 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $242.68 · official $242.94 (match) · 157 history records