Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C8 0xc898…b0f8 world 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,946 (-10%) realized −$4,841 · open −$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate53%66W / 59L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$375per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days−$503
14 days−$660
30 days−$4,952
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$2,239
politics 21% −$1,000
other 16% −$1,907
crypto 1% +$38
sports 1% −$103
weather 1% +$210
finance 0% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -17.1% -25.0% 50% 32% -22.1%
≤30d 63 -25.7% -32.8% 48% 33% -22.0%
≤90d 124 -17.6% -25.4% 53% 30% -19.1%
all 125 -18.2% -26.0% 53% 30% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 30% -19.1%
10% -33.1% 20% -26.8%
15% -39.5% 11% -33.9%
20% -45.5% 6% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$134 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$1,438
Realized−$4,841
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses66 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)125 / 132
History coverage101d
Avg bet$375
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 81¢ $512 $613 +$101 (+20%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? No 46¢ 44¢ $300 $290 −$10 (-3%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $174 $174 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $144 $121 −$23 (-16%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $150 $117 −$33 (-22%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 15¢ 14¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 4¢ $163 $32 −$131 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $131 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 20 $172 −$6 -4%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 20 $152 −$11 -7%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 20 $134 −$10 -7%
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 20 $152 +$1 +1%
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 20 $21 +$2 +9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $100 −$53 -52%
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 20 $10 $0 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $676 +$81 +12%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $691 −$14 -2%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $738 −$268 -36%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $150 +$36 +24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $450 −$292 -65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 13 $413 +$343 +83%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $131 +$37 +28%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $10 +$4 +38%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $150 +$20 +13%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 08 $150 +$29 +19%
Will Vincenzo Ceccarelli win the 2026 Arezzo mayoral election? Jun 07 $123 −$120 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $152 −$102 -68%
Will Mario Almici win the 2026 Legnano mayoral election? Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $278 −$278 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 06 $153 +$77 +50%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $151 +$53 +35%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $200 +$45 +22%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $114 +$49 +43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $150 +$35 +23%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 4, 2026? Jun 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 04 $153 +$68 +44%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 03 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 02 $151 +$40 +26%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? Jun 02 $126 −$42 -33%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $450 −$322 -72%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 01 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 01 $855 −$852 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1,022 +$19 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1,944 +$40 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 31 $1,000 +$69 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 62¢ $165 2h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $1 2h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? SELL No 69¢ $1 2h
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 2h
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 2h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 2h
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $176 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $172 5h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $103 12h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $306 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $676 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 45¢ $331 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $74 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 51¢ $151 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 54¢ $120 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,437.79 · official $1,437.79 (match) · 323 history records