Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C8 0xc898…9086 crypto 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate67%94W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$3
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% +$15
sports 28% −$14
weather 18% −$29
other 16% +$11
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +0.0% -9.5% 64% 46% -9.0%
≤30d 141 +0.2% -9.3% 67% 51% -12.0%
≤90d 141 +0.2% -9.3% 67% 51% -12.0%
all 141 +0.2% -9.3% 67% 51% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 51% -12.0%
10% -18.0% 39% -20.4%
15% -25.9% 30% -28.1%
20% -33.2% 23% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses94 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)141 / 152
History coverage13d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 77¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Egypt finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 85¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 83¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 81¢ 93¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 87¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$2 +14%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$3 -56%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $33 +$22 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $3 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $2 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $10 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $10 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $10 14h
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 90¢ $29 19h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 61¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 22h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 69¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $10 22h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $10 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $5 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $5 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $10 34h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $10 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $10 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 41h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $5 42h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 43h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $10 45h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $10 45h
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $10 45h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.32 · official $104.24 (match) · 303 history records