Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:30:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc894…aaeb other 233 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 223L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$21
14 days−$31
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$36
sports 22% −$18
politics 10% −$8
culture 8% −$12
economics 6% −$4
crypto 6% −$5
world 5% −$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 79 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 232 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)232 / 233
History coverage128d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $159 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $719 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $158 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $323 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $206 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 16 $217 −$6 -3%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $154 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $281 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $465 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $157 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $194 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $556 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $174 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $203 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $217 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $570 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $179 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $226 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $239 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $372 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 09 $271 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $46 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $47 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $355 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $173 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $540 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $261 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $340 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $289 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $279 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $283 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 15m
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $42 4h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $42 5h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $42 7h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $42 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 11h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $42 13h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 14h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 19h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 20h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $42 22h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $42 24h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 28h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 29h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $11 32h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $11 34h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $42 35h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $42 36h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $42 41h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $42 42h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $42 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $43 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $43 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $43 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $43 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.74 · official $41.74 (match) · 1366 history records