Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:59:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C8 0xc891…a440 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 609d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate84%41W / 8L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$3
other 35% −$2
sports 14% $0
crypto 7% +$2
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 18 -4.9% -14.0% 94% 0% -9.4%
all 49 -1.4% -10.8% 84% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses41 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)49 / 56
History coverage609d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 99¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 16 $83 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 15 $12 $0 +0%
Suns vs. Thunder May 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 15 $110 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Apr 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 22 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026 Mar 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026 Mar 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026? Mar 19 $59 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? Feb 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? Feb 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? Feb 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? Feb 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 28 $20 $0 +1%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 28 $122 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 30 $121 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 28 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1500 in August? Sep 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Aug 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? Jul 16 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? May 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Steelers win Super Bowl 2025? Mar 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Mar 26 $74 $0 +0%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Giants win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Nov 16 $11 $0 +2%
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? Oct 16 $396 $0 -0%
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? Oct 16 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 16 $1,153 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 16 $1,154 −$1 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 16 $1,155 −$1 -0%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 16 $1,156 −$1 -0%
Democrats and Republicans both lose the 2024 Presidential Election? Oct 15 $1,157 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 50m
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 51m
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $20 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $83 32d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 32d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 32d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 55d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 55d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 55d
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 55d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 93¢ $15 55d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $38 89d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 89d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 89d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 89d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 89d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 122d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $20 122d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $21 122d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $22 122d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $19 139d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 139d
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 139d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 139d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 139d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 139d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.09 · official $154.09 (match) · 278 history records